The NFL's Changing Offensive Identity

For years, NFL offenses were designed around explosive plays– deep passes downfield and quick scoring drives. Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers dominated in systems that prioritized big-play potential. But, things are changing… and they have been for the better part of the past few years. This season, the AFC and NFC Championship teams (Chiefs, Bills, Commanders, and Eagles) didn't rely on a deep passing attack. Instead, they won by staying ahead of the sticks and putting together methodical, efficient drives rather than constantly hunting for home-run plays.

Across the league, average depth of target (aDOT) is going down, passing volume is decreasing, and there is an emphasis on running the ball, especially among playoff teams. The visualization below depicts how aDOT has been dropping since 2010.
This represents a significant shift regarding offensive schematics and has ultimately redefined what it means to be a successful offense within the NFL.

In short: defenses have figured it out.

In the last five years, defensive coordinators have increasingly used two-high safety shells that take away deep passes and force offenses to work underneath. With more nickel and dime packages, lighter linebackers, and hybrid defenders, stopping the pass has become the priority, forcing offenses to rethink their approach.

As Mina Kimes from ESPN explains:

About 10 years ago, defenses realized passing was more efficient than running, so they built lighter, faster defenses to stop it. But now, offenses are countering that by running the ball more and using shorter, high-efficiency passes. It's a constant chess match.

With defenses focusing more on coverage than run-stopping, offenses have responded by embracing efficiency – running the ball more, using quick passes, and sustaining long drives.

Some teams and QBs have thrived in this new landscape by adapting their schemes to focus on consistency rather than explosiveness.

Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes, who is widely regarded as the best QB in the league, had one of the lowest aDOTs of his career this season. However, the Chiefs still made it to the Super Bowl. Instead of forcing deep throws, Mahomes had the ability to extend plays and distribute short, accurate passes- helping Kansas City lead the league in yards after catch (YAC) percentage.
This trend isn't new for Mahomes and the Chiefs. Over the years, there has been a direct correlation between his aDOT and the team's YAC % — when his aDOT was higher, YAC % tended to dip, and when aDOT was lower, YAC % increased. Baltimore Ravens
Under offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens crafted a rushing attack that blended structure with unpredictability. Because of this, the offense was able to maximize Lamar Jackson's dual-threat ability. Unlike teams that rely purely on schematic design, Baltimore's system thrived because Jackson was the X-factor. As Mina Kimes put it,

With the Ravens, it's a good scheme, but you have a cheat code. I think the Bills as well, because their quarterbacks are so such a threat to keep the ball and run. So with that, it's much more about the quarterback, whereas with teams like Detroit and the Rams, it's more about the scheme.

Jackson's presence forced defenses to account for both the designed runs and the constant threat of a quarterback taking off, similar to what makes Buffalo's Josh Allen dangerous.

Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles embraced a run-heavy approach, powered by their offensive line as well as Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts' mobility. While they could still take deep shots when needed, as we saw in the Super Bowl, their foundation was built on controlling the line of scrimmage and executing efficient, low-risk plays.

Phiadelphia's defensive unit was just as elite. Defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, implemented a modern approach where he emphasized two-high safety shells and light boxes to prevent explosive plays while stopping the run with disciplined gap control and sound tackling. The Eagles, under this approach, relied on their dominant defensive front to handle the run without committing extra defenders, allowing them to stay structurally sound against the run as well as the pass.

Mina Kimes on Philadelphia:

The Eagles played the highest rate of light boxes in football yet still maintained an elite run defense. Their scheme is built to be efficient in both the run and pass game.

Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen's dual-threat ability made the Bills one of the most adaptable offenses in the league. While their passing attack wasn't as explosive as in past seasons, Allen's ability to extend plays and create rushing opportunities helped Buffalo remain efficient. Defenses had to respect his legs, opening up high-percentage passing plays and allowing the Bills to sustain long drives.

This shift in offensive philosophy has had several major impacts on the game:

• Lower scoring games due to fewer explosive plays and longer drives
• Reduced drives per game because balanced offenses mean fewer total possessions
• New challenges for teams built around big plays, like the Vikings and Chargers, who've struggled against more consistent teams

Ben Baldwin, an NFL analytics expert, puts it this way:

Defenses have made it harder to complete deep passes, so offenses have shifted. The teams that succeed are the ones that can sustain long drives without making mistakes.

Will this efficiency-based offensive approach become the new norm, or will defenses adjust and force offenses to reinvent themselves yet again? The NFL is cyclical in nature, where old concepts eventually get recycled and become innovative. Kimes said,

The run-pass balance will always shift depending on what defenses are doing. But right now, the teams that can control the game with efficiency are the ones winning,

In an era where patience is paying off more than explosiveness, the fundamental dynamics of the game haven't changed— only the strategies to achieve success. Teams that can methodically move the chains while maintaining flexibility in their approach are proving that a sustainable offense doesn't require highlight-reel plays. As we witness this pendulum swing toward efficiency over high-risk plays, the evolution of football continues its cycle of innovation and counter-innovation. This serves as a reminder that the most successful franchises are those that can anticipate as well as dictate— rather than merely react to the next paradigm shift.